2023 Mars Outlook: Starship and NASA Moon-to-Mars program
The future for manned Mars missions is truly exciting and 2023 is shaping up to be a pivotal year across multiple platforms and programs. In this article the team here at The Mars Blueprint are going to hit a couple of the key milestones towards a manned mission to Mars that SpaceX and NASA are projecting for 2023 and dive into what success means if they pull off their ambitious plans. So buckle up for the ride as we dive into the possible future 2023 has in store!
If you are looking for more info on current U.S. robotic/satellite missions to Mars or a full list of historical missions I recommend checking out NASA’s current Mars mission page or the Planetary Society’s full overview of every Mars Mission ever launched.
On the manned mission front, the outlook for this 2023 really splits in two distinct directions:
- SpaceX: Starship/Super Heavy platform powered by the brand new Raptor 2 rocket engines. This revolutionary system needs to prove it is flight ready and can make it to orbit (and hopefully back) in one piece.
- NASA Moon to Mars program: NASA has billed Artemis as part of their ultimate “Moon to Mars” program. This year is all about building on the success of the Space Launch System / Artemis 1 and working towards Artemis 2 which loosely includes a host of Commercial Lunar Payload Services (CLPS) missions in 2023 testing new tech on the Moon. All of these are billed as foundational programs that build towards Mars.
SpaceX
2023 started out spectacularly for SpaceX with two major tests successfully under their belt. On January 24th a fully stacked Starship SN24 and Booster B7 completed a successful “wet dress rehearsal” where 10 million pounds of propellant were loaded/unloaded on the stacked vehicle. That feat was one-upped barely 2 weeks later with a successful static fire of 31 of 33 of B7’s Raptor 2 engines. Elon Musk confirmed that this successful round of tests sets the new Starship/Super Heavy system up for a March orbital test launch.
So that brings up the excellent question of “what’s next?” I’m glad you asked!
Most likely to occur in 2023: Starship will launch in March barring any unforeseen issues with troubleshooting the systems, launch pad readiness or FAA launch license. According to the FCC flight profile, “the Starship Orbital test flight will originate from Starbase, TX. The Booster stage will separate approximately 170 seconds into flight. The Booster will then perform a partial return and land in the Gulf of Mexico approximately 20 miles from the shore. The Orbital Starship will continue on, flying between the Florida Straits. It will achieve orbit until performing a powered, targeted landing approximately 100km (~62 miles) off the northwest coast of Kauai in a soft ocean landing.”
Once Starship/Super Heavy are proven systems, then theoretically SpaceX could/should start working on its NASA contracted orbital refueling demonstration tests. In 2020 NASA selected SpaceX to demonstrate they could transfer 10 metric tons of cryogenic propellant between starships. This is where SpaceX Mars ambitions and NASA’s Moon to Mars programs begin to blur. This refueling is a NASA milestone for the SpaceX Human Landing System that enables a moon version of Starship to be certified for landing an Artemis mission on the moon. SpaceX is contracted to do an uncrewed landing of the SpaceX HLS variant of the Starship prior to Artemis III and then a crewed landing to follow. Refueling is also a critical step in SpaceX Mars plan to get a fully fueled Starship on its way to the red planet. Getting Starship to orbit out of Earth’s gravity well burns up a lot of fuel, so refueling is critical to both missions.
In terms of what’s next, after a successful refueling we get into the long shot territory of trying a manned flight of Starship. Recent statements by SpaceX President and Chief Operating Officer Gwynne Shotwell at an FAA Space Transportation Conference make 2023 highly unlikely as Shotwell indicated that she would like to see 100 Starship cargo flights before a manned flight. Given that we are three months into 2023 and still waiting on the first launch, 100 launches this year seems out of reach. However, on paper the civilian DearMoon voyage is scheduled for 2023, but there has been no word yet on an exact date. The mission is being developed in partnership with Japanese fashion designer, Yusaku Maezawa, who will be a passenger on the spacecraft alongside a crew of eight creative individuals from around the world.
While we would love to see this happen, it would require not only the March orbital test to go perfectly but also massive amounts of human rated systems to be developed, installed and tested in a matter of months to make Starship capable of carrying a crew.
Now is this possible? Maybe… but highly unlikely. To put this in perspective, SpaceX took 5 years to get from the awarding of the NASA Commercial Crew Program in 2014 to when it launched the first Crew Dragon in 2019 and then it was another year after that before a crewed launch. While many of the systems from Crew Dragon COULD be modified to work on Starship, the sheer magnitude of Starship will require time to adapt it to a MUCH larger platform. For comparison sake, the pressurized volume of the Crew Dragon is 328 cubic feet. The projected pressurized volume of Starship is 38,800 cubic feet. Nearly 100 times greater than Crew Dragon and actually larger than the pressurized volume of the ISS. The life support systems alone will need to be on the scale of ISS’ to keep the crew alive and that is no small feat.
NASA – Moon to Mars
While technically the next series of moon missions, NASA views the Artemis program and larger “Moon to Mars” program as the foundation for future Mars missions and as such are intertwined as one builds towards the other. This is defined in Space Policy Directive-1, wherein “the NASA Administrator shall, ‘Lead an innovative and sustainable program of exploration with commercial and international partners to enable human expansion across the solar system and to bring back to Earth new knowledge and opportunities. Beginning with missions beyond low-Earth orbit, the United States will lead the return of humans to the Moon for long-term exploration and utilization, followed by human missions to Mars and other destinations. ”
Billing Artemis as a manned Mars mission in any sense is a stretch, but where we can give NASA credit is that they have laid out a plan to test key technologies that will absolutely be needed for deep space missions to include a manned mission to Mars.
Starting with launch hardware, the November 16, 2022 Space Launch System launch proved that NASA’s heavy lift SLS rocket is capable of putting some serious hardware into orbits far beyond earth. The SLS has also taken the title as the most powerful rocket ever to launch successfully, besting the previous title holder NASA’s Apollo era Saturn V. This may be a short lived record if Starship gets into orbit, but for now, it is the ranking contender in the heavyweight rocket world.
2023 will be a construction year for NASA’s big projects and NASA contractors are already constructing the Habitation and Logistics Outpost (HALO) module of the Gateway outpost. This space station is a key component of the Artemis program and will be the first space station in lunar orbit specifically designed to support NASA’s deep space exploration plans. This station should provide valuable insight into keeping astronauts safe and healthy outside of the protective shield of the Earth’s Van Allen radiation belts. Beyond the experience gained from operating a station outside of low Earth Orbit, Gateway will also dovetail with the plans for Starship. SpaceX HLS Starship will be designed to dock with Gateway and transport astronauts down to the Moon’s surface.
There will also be a flurry of activity heading to the moon starting in 2023 with NASA’s Commercial Lunar Payload Services (CLPS) initiative. These projects including the Peregrine Mission 1 (TO2-AB), Intuitive Machines 1 Mission (TO2-IM), and follow on IM-2 Mission are mainly lunar focused but will also provide valuable experience and insight that can be applied to future Mars missions.
Whether it is watching a brilliant Starship launch (or RUD), or following the many milestones of the NASA Moon to Mars program, 2023 is shaping up to be an exciting year for space enthusiasts. Even if only the most basic systems are proven this year in either program, it will still be a step in the right direction to eventually supporting a manned mission to Mars.